Use payment data before you plan Black Friday discounts

A small rise in takings can conceal fewer completed orders, smaller baskets or a higher cost for every successful payment. September's retail sales grew 1.3% year on year, below the 12-month average of 1.5%, across the five weeks ending 3 October.

The mix varied sharply. Food sales grew 2.5%, while non-food grew 0.3%. Online non-food sales grew 0.7%, and online represented 38.3% of non-food sales compared with 37.9% a year earlier.

Use those figures as context. Your own order and payment records provide the useful diagnosis. Split revenue into the number of completed payments and the average value of each one. Then compare payment attempts with completions and calculate the acceptance cost left against each successful sale.

For online sales, check the journey from basket to payment confirmation on a phone. For invoices and payment links, compare requests sent, links opened and payments completed. For in-person sales, compare till activity with completed payments and record any recurring terminal or connectivity issue.

Promotion decisions become safer when you can see the constraint. A completion problem needs a journey fix. A smaller basket may need better bundles or clearer delivery thresholds. A thinner margin needs the full cost of the payment route inside the calculation.

On Monday, export four weeks of order and payment data for your busiest route. Record attempts, completions, average value, payment cost and time until money is available. Choose the largest avoidable drop, make one change and run the same comparison next Friday.